The assessed production of refined bismuth in China by SMM in October is expected to increase by approximately 10.5% MoM [SMM Data].

According to SMM's assessment, China's refined bismuth production in October 2025 is expected to increase by approximately 10.5% MoM compared to September. In recent months, bismuth production had been on a downward trend, with the first rebound occurring in August, followed by a significant decrease again in September. Entering Q4 in October, bismuth production rebounded once more. Market participants indicated that such repeated fluctuations in production correspond to the current volatility in bismuth prices and reflect a stalemate in market fundamentals. However, some market participants also noted that the approximately 10% increase in October production is relatively small, overall bismuth raw material remains tight, and production may likely remain at a low level as the norm. Looking at detailed data, among SMM's 24 survey subjects, two producers resumed production in October after halting, leading to a noticeable increase in output, while one producer suddenly stopped production, causing a significant decline. Output from the remaining producers experienced minor fluctuations, with little overall change. Many market participants expect that the tight raw material situation for bismuth producers nationwide will remain difficult to alleviate in November, production is likely to continue being constrained, refined bismuth production is expected to remain stable, and the possibility of another significant increase is relatively small.

Note: Since October 2022, SMM has been publishing its assessed national refined bismuth production. Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate in the bismuth industry, the total number of refined bismuth producers surveyed by SMM is 24, distributed across 8 provinces in China, with a total sample capacity exceeding 50,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate of over 99%.

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